한국경제에 대한 위기설에 쐐기를 박는 리포트가 나와 주목을 끈다. 한국경제가 위기인지 근본적인 물음을 갖고 로이터가 해외 경제전문가들에게 의견을 구해봤다. 정말 97년 외환위기 이후 큰 위기에 직면했는지, 아니면 어떤 원인 때문에 위기로 명명되고 있고 실상은 어떤 것인지 분석을 해봤다.
특히 MB가 정치적 위기를 맞아 경제적 위기를 줄곧 지적하고 있는데 과연 그 만큼 한국경제가 위기에 다다른 것인지를 진단해 봤다. 그것이 사실이 아니라면, 경제지표가 그렇게 나쁘지 않으면, 왜 MB는 위기론을 거론하고 있는가에 대한 물음도 함께 던진다.
촛불집회에 모두 시선이 돌아가 있을 때, 언론 가운데 외국 통신사가 발 빠르게 입체적으로 한국의 속내를 짚어보는 리포트를 했다는 점에서 주목을 받지 않을 수 없다. 로이터는 한국의 정치경제적 상황에 대한 상당한 취재망과 조예가 있다는 평을 받고 있다. 경쟁사랄 수 있는 미국의 AP보다는, 최소한 이번 촛불정국에서 만큼은 누가 뭐래도 압도하고 있다. 촛불 100만 행진에서도 로이터는 경찰 추산 8만, 주최측 추산 70만명(서울)을 함께 보도해, 경찰 추산 8만명만을 실은 AP와는 대조를 보였다.
뿐만 아니라 10일 워싱턴에서 칼로스 구티에레스 미 상무장관을 접촉해 쇠고기 재협상을 하지 않겠다는 미국측의 입장을 신속히 보도했다. 쇠고기 재협상단이 워싱턴에서 활동을 개시하는 시점이었다. AP가 자국의 미국측 입장을 고려하기 때문인지는 알 수 없으나 AP의 보도는 사실 전달 수준에서 그치거나, 아니면 ‘있는 사실’의 전달 충실도에서 부실함으로 인해 아쉬움을 주고 있다.
이번 로이터의 한국경제 분석 기사는 MB나 정부 관계자에게 외국이 어떤 시각을 갖고 있는 가를 날카롭게 보여주고 있다. 경제 위기설로 촌스런 위장술을 하지 말라는 뼈아픈 지적으로 받아들여진다. 물론 경제가 어렵지 않다는 의견은 아니지만 한국정부가 그렇게 호들갑을 떨 만큼은 아니니 엄살 피우지 말라는 행간의 지적을 느낄 수 있다.
한국경제가 어려운 것은 내부적인 요인이 아니라 유가 등 외부적인 요인이며, 또 이 충격을 견뎌내지 못할 만큼 한국경제의 펀드멘털이 유약하지 않다는 견해가 잇따라 제시되고 있다. 외환위기 이후 기업의 자기부채 비율이 크게 축소됐고 금융부분도 튼실할 뿐 아니라 인플레이션도 우려할 수준이 아니며 외환보유고도 걱정할 단계가 아니란 설명이다.
결론적으로 한국경제가 어려운 것이 아니라 세계경제가 어려우니 이 정도의 어려움은 오히려 자연스럽다는 것이다. 어려운 쇠고기 정국을 그다지 어렵지 않은 경제의 위기론으로 여론을 호도하지 말라는 로이터의 발칙하면서도 깜찍한 지적이 아닐 수 없다.
Troubled South Korea not anywhere near crisis
Wed Jun 11, 2008 5:21am EDT
SEOUL (Reuters) - South Korea's president warns the economy risks tipping into crisis from surging prices and slowing growth but analysts say it isn't anywhere near as gloomy.
Asia's fourth-largest economy is being confronted by its toughest challenge since the 1997 Asian financial meltdown, but relatively healthy business and macroeconomic fundamentals suggest it is not close to a crisis, they said.
President Lee Myung-bak, who has seen his approval rating plummet to under 20 percent from more than 50 percent after barely three months in office, warned on Tuesday the country faced a "resource crisis". He described it as the gravest threat to the economy since the 1997 financial debacle.
South Korea relies heavily on imports of most energy, food and raw materials supplies, making it especially vulnerable to skyrocketing oil and commodities prices.
Analysts said Lee was right to draw attention to the threat from inflation, but may be overstating the dangers.
"I think he's trying to rally support for his beleaguered government by pointing out an external threat to the economy. I also think he is overstating the threat," said Tim Condon, Singapore-based Asia economist at investment bank ING.
South Korea's current account is in deficit, external debt rising and the won weakening, but these won't drive the $1 trillion economy into a full-fledged crisis, analysts said.
The corporate and financial sectors, furthermore, are stronger than they were a decade ago.
"The macroeconomic imbalances are nowhere near as large as they were in the run-up to the Asian financial crisis," said Frederic Neumann, Hong Kong-based Asia economist at HSBC. "Now, foreign exchange reserves are ample, external debt (is) nowhere near as high, and the currency appears fairly valued."
The won's freefall after years of current account deficits run up during greedy expansion by companies had put South Korea on the verge of a sovereign default in late 1997, only to be rescued by an International Monetary Fund-led bailout.
"The overleveraged corporate sector, a key vulnerability behind the Asian crisis, has deleveraged significantly," said Meral Karasulu, the IMF's representative in Seoul.
"The financial sector, which lacked commercial orientation and ability to assess risks has been transformed into a vibrant one, with high levels of capitalization and low levels of non-performing assets," she said.
TOUGH CHALLENGES
President Lee, who won by a landslide in December after a campaign focused on jump-starting growth, is looking to defuse public anger over a resumption of U.S. beef imports and dissatisfaction with his governing style.
South Korea expects to post its first current account deficit since the 1997 crisis this year. Short-term external debt as a ratio of foreign reserves has doubled in three years and consumer price inflation is running at a 7-year high.
"The small current account deficit would need to be viewed within the context of a global economic slowdown and the sharp rise in commodity prices that Korea is not immune to," said IMF's Karasulu.
"The build-up in short-term external debt should be monitored closely, but the risks should not be exaggerated, as the nature and uses of the short-term external inflows are very different from a decade earlier," she added.
FAIRLY VALUED
South Korea has since the Asian crisis opened up its capital markets, introduced a strict supervisory framework over its financial and corporate sector and abandoned a managed peg on the won, as mandated by the IMF for its bailout package.
"Back then, Korea's short-term external debt was a multiple of the country's foreign exchange reserves and the exchange rate appeared broadly overvalued," said HSBC's Neumann.
The won had been more than 20 percent overvalued against a basket of currencies in the late 1990s even amid current account deficits, but is now valued on par even after 10 years of surpluses, a measure by research firm IDEAglobal shows.
"A slight current account deficit does not represent a major macroeconomic imbalance and, in fact, appears justified at a time when international commodity prices, of which Korea is a major importer, are hitting all-time highs," Neumann said.
This year's current account deficit seen at 1 percent of the annual gross domestic product is way below 4 percent in 1996, and the end-2007 short-term external debt at 60 percent of the foreign reserves is below 312 percent in 1997.
The corporate sector's overall debt-to-equity ratio has fallen to around 100 percent from more than 400 percent in 1997.
The central bank was also granted full autonomy from the finance ministry in 1998.
"The main threat posed by the oil price shock is that monetary policy is too accommodative and it becomes a broad-based inflation shock. This has happened in Vietnam and it has driven that economy to a near-crisis point," said ING's Condon.
"Korea is nowhere near that stage and the recent turn toward hawkishness by the authorities suggests to me that Korea will not get to that stage, that policy will tighten and inflation expectations will remain well contained," he added.
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