벌써 미국산 쇠고기의 한국시장 점유율이 거론되고 있다. 아직 고시 게재에 대한 헌법재판소의 판단이 남아있기는 하지만 수입이 기정사실화 되고 있다. 얼마나 한국인들이 사줄 것인가에 대한 전망이 나오는 단계에 이른 것이다.

한국은 2003년 미국에서 광우병이 발생한 후 수입을 중단하기 전 매년 20만톤을 들여왔다. 8억5000만 달러(약 8830억원) 상당으로 국내시장의 약 40%를 점유했다.

그럼 이번 쇠고기 고시 이후 들여와 파는 양은 어느 정도일까. 들어오는 마당에 안 팔릴 수는 없는 일. 올해에만 5만톤 정도가 판매될 것으로 보인다는 한 한국인 전문가의 전망을 인용해 로이터통신이 전했다.

주로 호텔 쪽의 외국인들에게 팔리고 한국인들에겐 좀 다소 시간이 걸릴 것이란 전망이다. 그럼에도 지난해 3년간 수입금지 됐다가 풀렸었을 때 문전성시를 이뤘던 점을 들고 있다.

특히 한우 쇠고기 값이 비싸 그 절반 정도에 해당하는 미국산 쇠고기를 찾는 한국인이 늘어날 것으로 전망하고 아마 광우병 우려가 사라지는 2-3개월 정도면 시장 점유율이 높아질 것이란 분석이다.

한국은 한때 미국 쇠고기 3대 수입국이었지만 2003년 후반 미국에서 광우병 발병으로 수입을 전면 중단했다가 지난해 30개월 미만 소의 뼈 없는 쇠고기만을 수입 재개했다. 그러나 뼛조각이 발견돼 이마저 중단됐다.

이로 인해 호주산 쇠고기가 인기를 끌면서 수출국 1위로 부상했고, 미국으로선 시장탈환에 전전긍긍해왔다.

한국인 1인당 평균 쇠고기 소비량은 매년 7.5kg정도로 알려졌다. 2003년과 2004년 광우병 파동으로 6.1kg까지 떨어졌다. 그러나 10년 후 2018년까지 쇠고기 소비량은 15-16kg까지 크게 늘 것으로 예상되고 있다.

호주는 지난해 8억4000만 달러 상당의 14만7600톤을 수출했고 뉴질랜드가 3만8400톤, 멕시코는 2600톤을 수출했다. 쇠고기 소비량이 늘어 2018년에 현재 소비량의 두 배가 될 것을 고려하면 한국시장은 절대 작은 시장이 아니다.

South Korea both cautious and hungry for US beef
Thu Jun 26, 2008 4:08am EDT

SEOUL, June 26 (Reuters) - South Korea allowed U.S. beef back into its market for the first time in nine months on Thursday, but fierce public opposition means it will take years for the once popular cuts to win back their number one imports position.

U.S. beef has been on a tumultuous ride in South Korea, with consumers snapping up cheap steaks a year ago after a three-year ban, and this year launching street protests against what some see as a mad-cow time bomb.

"There is definitely demand for U.S. beef but early consumption will be very small at around 50,000 tonnes (this year), because consumer confidence in U.S. beef is so low," said Kim Jin-kyo, a researcher at the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy.

South Korea, which banned U.S. beef for about three years from the end of 2003 after an outbreak of mad cow disease, used to import 200,000 tonnes of the product a year with a value of about $850 million, about 40 percent of the total market.

With U.S. beef gone, meat from Australia and New Zealand took a bigger share of imports. South Korea had been U.S. beef producers' third-largest overseas market.

"It'll take a while for the U.S. products to restore sales momentum and initial sales are likely to target high-end markets such as hotels serving foreigners," Kim said.

South Korea said it would resume quarantine checks on Thursday, allowing some 5,300 tonnes of U.S. beef that has been in frozen storage since October to be inspected immediately and sent to stores as early as next week.

"We have received three requests for inspection so far," an official at the National Veterinary Research and Quarantine Service said, adding some 20 importers were preparing to make inspection requests later on Thursday.

When the U.S. and South Korea struck a deal in April to allow in all cuts of U.S. beef regardless of the age of the cattle, South Koreans took to the streets by the tens of thousands, saying the pact opened the way for potentially dangerous products.

U.S. and South Korean officials insisted U.S. beef was safe but still reworked their deal limit trade to cattle under 30 months of age, thought to pose less of a risk of mad cow disease.

Second-month U.S. live cattle futures LCc2, which have struggled to keep up with a broader commodities rally, moved from a one-and-a-half year low in mid-April to a contract high last week as traders expect high corn prices to mean lower herd sizes going forward.

CHILLY RECEPTION

Once the beef clears quarantine checks, it seems a chilly reception awaits, with a recent survey saying about two-thirds of South Koreans think U.S. beef is not safe and major retailers saying they will not sell it due to lack of demand.

"I'm not going to switch to U.S. beef just because it's cheap. I'd rather continue to have Australian meat," said Lee Jung-eun, a mother of two children.

South Korean labour activists on Thursday pledged to block trucks carrying U.S. beef that has been waiting in storage from reaching store shelves.

But while South Koreans say they are unwilling to give U.S. beef a chance, analysts point out that when the country ended its three-year ban last year, consumers jammed stores to purchase inexpensive U.S. meat.

South Korea has some of the world's highest domestic beef prices, because of farm subsidies and a complex distribution system that raises costs. U.S. beef has typically sold at about half the cost or less of similar cuts of local beef.

"Importers are struggling due to falling demand but we expect consumption will slowly recover," said Park Chang-kyu, head of A-Meat and a meat importers' association.

With no restrictions, U.S. beef exports to South Korea could reach $1.1 billion initially, the International Trade Commission said.

The main loser looks likely to be Australia, which in the years since the ban has seen its sales to South Korea more than double to nearly 150,000 tonnes, giving it three quarters of the import market.

Importers said they expect U.S. beef to be some 30 percent cheaper than Australian meat, with initial consumption from mid-sized retailers or butchers as well as makers of processed foods. 

Analysts and importers expect safety fears to diminish over the next few months with the beef gradually making its way back to major supermarket chains.

"There is not a soul in the world that is forcing anyone to eat it (U.S. beef)," U.S. State Department spokesman Tom Casey told reporters this week.